Take iPhone first model as a starting point, 2016 is the tenth year of the birth of smart phones, smart phone sales from 124 million in 2007 increased to 1.4 billion (2015 data). Smart phone which Steve Jobs defined from market to shape become mature. If the decade is the evolution cycle of mobile phone, 2016 is the peak of smart phones before the transformation. Look through 2016, the time came to the end of the mobile phone industry boom, smart phone infect people’s daily life in every aspects , the mobile phone industry has finally returned from the chaotic order.
1, Product iteration accelerate the overdraft of the whole mobile phone industry
Almost all of the brands have accelerated the pace of new mobile phone iteration, 2016 release of new products is staggering, Meizu brand launch new products every month.From 2015 to 2016, No Blue has it’s five generation already. This is only a corner of the fast speed of new launch smart phones. Due to the market share saturation, frequent new products update is a new way to gain clients attention.
Product release speed beyond Moore’s Law, while the mobile phone industry technological innovation is far from keeping up with, especially the chip architecture and network speed rise space is limited in 2016, the consequences of the mobile phone industry is the overall overdraft. One of it’s performance is pulling down the market price of different equipment’s smart phone. For example, fingerprints function shows on low end market in 2015; dual-camera falls from the flagship machine into the medium end market. Fierce competition makes new technology ‘s market cycle shorter and shorter, leaving lower and lower profit for smart phone company. From the consumer, the fierce competition allows users to spend less money to buy high-quality products, but for the industry chain, the new technology to obtain profit cycle become shorter and shorter, is likely to hit the brand’s innovative enthusiasm.
In innovation, mobile phone manufacturers have to continue to overdraft the future, push the immature semi-finished products out as today’s eye-catching selling point. The most prominent examples are ID no border, black technology which are aim to break through people’s cognitive knowledge. In 2016, there are still a large number of semi-finished products in the speculation period is used on the phone. For example, even though the current ultrasonic fingerprints did not able to unlock the phone in any place of the display, artificial intelligence and so on, such strong concept products have also been implanted into the phone, this initial artificial intelligent technology is still very far away from the perfect, but it seems that only via this it will not be forgotten by the marketing above everything’s smart phone industry.
At the same time, the reserve price and the rich variety of products make the mobile phone industry quickly transfer from incremental market into the stock market, brand attention has never concentrate like this before. The smart phone companies which has no living space could only choose to close down. Coke and INUI just two on the dead list.
Product iteration accelerate the smart phone market into the stock market, and if mobile phone brands want to increase demand in the stock market, it is necessary to accelerate the new product launch speed and shorten the development cycle, which leads to new products lack of creation and development, products are less likely to be impressive. As a leader of smart phone industry, Apple had to add new products. In order to pull up sales, Apples re-excavated the forgotten corner, launched a small screen iPhone SE in early 2016. However, we still see the iPhone sales decline during 2016.
At the end of 2016, even though the whole market is not good, but there are still some brands achieve the rise in sales with a off line channels and steady product strategy. In addition to Apple , Huawei, Vivo, OPPO have a great breakthrough in the sales.
2, Consume upgrades, the ID anxiety of ten thousands mobile phone
Thanks to the maturity of the industrial chain, mobile phone workship are more refined in 2016, the color also change from gold to rose gold, metal design become the highest frequency word on the press conference, Mi Mix microcrystalline zirconium ceramics and iPhone 7’s bright black metal technology provides a new choice for smart phone body design. From the evaluation machine, we find that hundred yuan machine has decrease many defects. When we try to buy a compatible mobile phone, the quality has guarantee.
Mobile phone performance has a substantial increase on comprehensive level, even Apple has also increased memory for two consecutive generations, and catch up with the dual camera fashion. Smart phone seems to be more and more cheap, with higher work and configuration, but the ZDC survey report pointed out that the new average price of smart phones in 2016 has been rising from 1644 yuan (Q1) to 2173 yuan (Q3 ), a significant increase. Lenovo’s Changcheng said in a recent interview, 2017 smart phones will be across the board prices, and in fact the price of mobile phones has been rising.
At the same time, experienced the first generation of smart phones brutal growth, low-end smart phones “rape” consumers began to spend more money on smart phones and began to focus on quality, which is behind a term called consumer upgrades.
One of the performance is more and more people buy iPhone, many people want to work hard to get rich gifts, such as an iPhone. In addition, people tend to buy a better mobile phone, the pursuit of the ultimate competitive is no longer so strong, People concern more about brand, whether it is high equipment and attractive or not. Therefore, the average price of domestic smart phones in 2016 is rising, breaking into 3000 ~ 4000 yuan become normal, 2017 this momentum will be more ferocious.
However, since more and more people could buy iPhone, another group of people – the rich began to anxiety, because the iPhone has been unable to assume the “distinction between class luxury” task. 8848 Feng Jichao analysis it very accurate, when your driver also began to use the iPhone, the waiter has no way to distinguish from the phone who is the leader. For this group of people, the ID anxiety is that ordinary people can not understand.
The rich people are also facing the mobile phone products, “consumer upgrades”, 10,000 yuan to become the boundaries of consumer goods and luxury goods. In addition to Samsung’s W series, Huawei Mate 9 Porsche Edition (overseas), Jin Li M2017 and 8848 private customized version are all break the price of 10,000 yuan to become the end of the 2016 iconic event. Whether the rich can accept the luxury of domestic brands have yet to be time to test, but the appearance of the domestics brand did give them a richer choice.
3, From the indulgence into the cell phone culture
Back to life, what smart phones and the mobile internet change is revolutionary, such as selfie. It was a photograph of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and this photo captures our obsession with the selfie. A staff member of the campaign team uploaded it to Twitter on sunday and has now been forwarded more than 20,000 times.
In contrast to the photographs taken during the 2008 campaign, supporters clung to Hillary, hoping to shake hands with her to get the photo or signature of the democrat.
This is just a small part of the smart phone to change life, due to the smart phone and mobile internet border-less attributes, the Internet craze global synchronization has become a norm. Mobile phone AR game “PokemonGo” is the best example, In 2016, “PokemonGo” surpass iphone7 and Trump and show on Google annual hot search list. On line for two months, “PokemonGo” the total number of downloads in the Android and IOS platforms has more than 500 million. The number of users who have been playing PokemonGo has reached 4.6 billion kilometers, which is equivalent to the distance from Earth to Pluto. Its greatest charm lies in creating a global phenomenon, open up the online virtual game and offline entity world, all the young people get out of the house, take the mobile phone capture elves everywhere, even in China.
In addition to mobile games in 2016, emoji expression has become a common language in the world and has received unprecedented attention, from the beginning of a social network in an immature small expression, emoji now become a complete set of language system. IPhone IOS 10 system input emoji search and forecasting features in keyboard so that you can more easily embedded in the blink eye, laughing and other expressions in the chat . The latest MacBook Pro’s OLED touch Bar also has emoji function.
Recently, Sony has also released a mobile phone expression adapted emoji big movie, expression “bored” as the host to the audience introduced himself and this movie, it is good to make mobile phone culture in the form of film into the consumer culture, become part of daily life.
For the domestic people who feel the deepest should be the convenience of mobile payment. In the 2016 Spring Festival, by passing the blessing of the “red envelope”, Alipay, WeChat were paid to millions of mobile payments, now taxi, supermarket shopping, McDonald’s or Starbucks, and even the streets of pancake hawkers and vending machines, mobile pay is everywhere. An obvious signal is that in the 2016 double 11 record of 120.7 billion new transactions, 85% of the consumption through mobile phones to pay.
Ministry of communications industry data show that , In November, the mobile internet access flow reached 1.02 billion G, and will continue to climb up. Current month, mobile internet access traffic reached 976M, an increase of 101.1%. The rise of mobile video broadcast plays an important role in it. Large or small video broadcast platforms have sprung up, and also create a new way to learn the world.
Smart phone has a perfect transform from communication tool to mobile life. Ten years ago, the whole society has not selfie, no expression package and no mobile payment, but now it has become an inseparable part of our daily life, from indulgence to integration, this maybe the biggest change in smart phones and is also the most beautiful presence.
4, Mobile phone real name system is the new order from chaos
From January 1, 2017, all unregistered mobile phone numbers will be officially suspended. Till now, the implementation of several years of mobile phone card real name system finally settled. The motion for Ministry of Industry to make such decision is the telecommunications fraud bring vast number of users huge losses of property, and even life. In August 2016, Jie yang quasi-college students were telecommunications fraud 9800 yuan college tuition, and ultimately suicide, triggering a national condemnation of telecommunications fraud.
According to statistics, the national telecommunications fraud occurred more than 599,000, resulting in economic losses of 22.2 billion yuan, mobile phone card real name system is an effective means to prevent and combat communications information fraud . Telecommunications fraud is entrenched in the mobile phone industry, part of the black production, dark buckle, malicious virus, Apple ID steal, along the way the mobile phone industry is from chaos and barbaric to orderly, the sound of the law and the gradual standardization of the industry brought health and order in 2016 which is a good start, though it is built on the lessons of blood.
Another order-related event has three seemingly unrelated roles, one of the roles of the Ministry of Industry issued a provision that the mobile pre-installed App must be able to uninstall, and can not be mandatory recovery. Another role Mi MIUI 8 promote advertising in a large cover in 2016, all-pervasive advertising to MIUI users leaves sarcastic remark for the ADUI. The third, officially announced to close the ROM CM at the end of the year.
Mobile phone pre-installed App has long been the industry’s “hidden rules” for charging fees, collecting privacy information and so on. ADUI’s MIUI is exactly make use of a large user base and can’t uninstall pre-installed App’s advantages for Ad system-level distribution. The Ministry of Industry on the pre-installable App can be uninstalled to some extent deterred the industry unspoken rules, let the chaos of the desktop war back on track
From MIUI to ADUI, custom ROM is also faced with the embarrassment that it can not be profitable, the CM announced the closure of exactly the same reason. Of course, CM is facing another plight of MIUI increase by themselves and squeeze CM’s living space . Single profit model is both MIUI and CM common problems, MIUI ignore the user’s against and rush into danger , third-party ROM can only be able to obtain the benefits by pre-installed Apps for a short term. To built a variety of unfriendly App, even sacrifice the user experience by push advertising, and eventually forced the Ministry of Industry to take measures. Helping third-party ROM to find a diversified profit model is an effective means to help the smart phone industry from the disorder to orderly. However, for the Android system, the mission is a long way to go.
5, Continue to lose the feelings, the old world continued to collapse
When the new order finish rebuild, the old world continued to collapse, no exception, the old world veterans rely on feelings of support, the face of the new world opponents, their mobile phone products and the market has not been fully recognized, and no parry.
Finally linger of the BlackBerry smart phone failed to drag the 2017 years even took three years of emergency reorganization by Shouzong Cheng . In December 2016, the BlackBerry and TCL reached a brand licensing agreement, officially quit the hardware business, the last full keyboard phone Mercury will be on display at the subsequent CES2017, become a blackberry independent design masterpiece.
And the former “feelings of the king” Nokia has many news online during the last year, triggering users continue to make comments, but in the past year, Nokia’s feelings have been neat, we did not see a Nokia smart phone show up again. It often hiding in the comments of users, imagine Nokia has spike all the new machine.
In fact, the past year, Nokia mobile phone business and Moto suffered the same fate. In May, Microsoft sales the Nokia function smart phones and it’s brand separately. Take it from HMD Global company with Foxconn background , at the same time, Microsoft also officially abandoned Lumia brand , The world has been shelves Lumia mobile phone products, one generation Lumia vanish from the world. The next decade, HMD will restart the Nokia brand, and now the company has been unable to wait to launch the Android system equipped with Nokia mobile phone, no accident we will see four new products in this year’s MWC2017 .
The last day of 2016, the official Nokia official return after two years, from @ Microsoft Lumia changed to @ Nokia mobile phone, but in the changing mobile phone market, is the feelings are still worth entrusted?
Moto, LG will look to the more cutting-edge modular design, Moto Z and LG G5 have brought us a prototype of the mobile phone module, LG also quietly released a special-shaped screen mobile phone V20. Maybe modular ups and downs of the waves confined to influence the industry. In September 2016, Google gave up the three-year model of mobile phone project Project Ara, makes the creation road more difficult to predict. Sony Dafa feelings still need face value support. As Google’s nexus / Pixel has a strong guiding significance on Andrews mobile phone design camp, Sony mobile phone has been the benchmark for Android mobile phone camera. Less risk of collision, when the international giants are now a minority niche fans of the feelings of the carnival, and the only desire to answer the Sony fans when it is time to increase the memory of it.
6, Talk about the future mobile phones, 2016 has been prepare it for you
According to the latest data from the IDC Global Mobile Tracking Quarterly forecast, global smart phone shipments will reach 1.45 billion units in 2016, only increase 0.6% while 10.4% growth compared with 2015. Data shows that smart phones are now universal in the mature market, and completely into the stock market.
Mobile phone business is become harder, an important factor is the hardware technology and network communication capacity to enhance meet the bottleneck at the same period, so that consumers can not intuitively feel the new changes, that is, smart phone is enough to meet the demands of daily life. Drive through the hardware innovation to change the desire will become difficult, but in 2016 there are two representative concept of mobile phones, one is Mi Mix which mainly focus on full screen, the other is the main concept of the glory of the AI Magic, can be described as hardware and data Ability to double the victory.
The future of smart phones or the next generation smart phone will be out of the decade from the two directions, which have emerged clues in 2016. Borderless screen is not the new technology, but it is a good idea to drive consumers to buy, it is undeniable that curve surface screen will become the trend in 2017, but no border or flexible screen will become a longer stage of the trend.
About the artificial intelligence (AI), 2016 has a more exciting performance. What makes AI becomes famous overnight is the Go game battle with AlphaGo and Lee Se-dol. As the representative of the depth of learning in the five chess to 4: 1 officially defeated the top of the human hand Lee Se-dol. At the beginning of 2016, Apple acquired Artificial Intelligence start-up company Emotient, and at the end of the year announced high-profile artificial intelligence report, aimed at AI vision. Google announced the company’s important strategic deployment to the I / O conference, and released the AI Assistant for mobile phones to show AI capabilities on mobile phones.
This series of deployments let us see the direction from the smart phone confused, but we need a clear understanding of both Google Assistant and glory Magic that they are primary artificial intelligence attempt. Gartner announced the emerging technology road map, there are 5 – 10 years to the real artificial intelligence, and this is the next smart phone development cycle.
Of course, do not forget 5G. The iPhone wind up the sky by 3G during the pass few years, the domestic mobile phone brand and mobile Internet have a bumper harvest by 4G , although there are four years from the 5G official business (2020) , but the entire industry chain has been fully mobilized. In the 5G standard mature process, China’s contribution is outstanding. Not only have China Mobile led 3GPP 5G system architecture standard project, but also have China-led Polar code shortlisted 3GPP 5G eMBB (enhanced mobile broadband) scene of the channel coding technology program.
For the mobile industry, 2016 is not a surprising year, it carries too much work before and after, so that it seems boring. It is undeniable that 2016 contains numerous mutations, especially breaking the existing system is still in the bud of the new technology after another, you will find that the next decade to lead the strength of today is born.